It’s been quite a while since we’ve had to discuss severe weather around here. Mother Nature has been awfully nice to us, especially around the 4th of July, with temperatures in the 70’s and 80’s around the area. Well, Mother Nature has held her silence enough and it looks like we will be seeing another round of severe weather.

The day should begin with the typical summertime setup. A stationary front will setup from the Great Lakes region into Nebraska and Iowa with a low pressure center setting up around South Dakota. Convection may be ongoing in the early morning with a mesoscale convective system, or MCS,  from North Dakota into Minnesota and Iowa. Forecasts can easily change with the timing and intensity of the MCS in the morning. Some clearing is expected later in the afternoon thanks to southernly winds and evaporation. This will begin the building blocks of severe thunderstorms, bringing dew points into the mid to upper 60’s.

Storms are expected to redevelop in the afternoon along the southeasternly moving cold front and outflow boundaries setup around the area. Modest shear will be capable of producing supercells and bowing segments, with the primary threats being large hail and damaging winds. For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted an enhanced risk (30%) for severe weather on Tuesday. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information on this system.