[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B02cdv9ssZU&hl=en&fs=1]

SEVERE OUT WEST: The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the western third of the state under a slight risk of severe weather. A moderate risk includes the extreme northwestern part of the state near the Big Sioux River valley, where an enhanced risk of possible tornadoes is likely. Outside of that, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats as the storms move into Iowa most likely later in the evening and into the overnight (a possible MCS).

OUT EAST TUESDAY?: There is an outlook for severe weather across the far eastern counties for Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will be problematic as the front is likely to be moving through the eastern counties of the state during the late morning and early afternoon hours. If any storms fire in the state, they may not be able to become severe until they’re across the river in Illinois. It will all depend on the placement of the cold front on Tuesday morning, and that will be dependent on where the storms fire later today in the Dakotas and Nebraska.

SUMMER HEAT: Could be looking at the first heat wave Thursday into the following weekend. MOS data shows highs will likely top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s. This will lead to heat indices at or approaching 100°, certainly not high enough to warrant a Heat Advisory, but warm nonetheless. This will last into early next week when the ridge will begin to break down.

MO RIVER FLOODING: Numerous river flood warnings have been issued along the Missouri River. The river is expected to go into flood in the next 1-2 weeks and may last several weeks depending on any future precipitation. This “could” be a record event in some areas along the river.