[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2LieECpbIU&hl=en&fs=1]

SEVERE WEATHER: The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked a slight risk of severe weather for today and tonight for the western half of the state. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. There is also an outlooked area across far eastern Iowa into Illinois for Monday and Monday night, however there is a chance of some isolated severe weather between that risk area and the one over South Dakota. Monday’s risks will likely be large hail and damaging winds once again, with a tornado not ruled out. Many of the parameters are high on Monday for possible severe weather, with high CAPE’s and little capping layer, but if the cap does take hold, it will shut off any thunderstorm development in the state (thus the possible reasoning for no outlooked area across much of Iowa Monday)

HEAVY PRECIP: Precipitation over the next 5 days will be plentiful, with at least an inch of rain falling across the state with a max of up to 2 inches possible. This will likely lead to another week of no planting across the state with wet soggy fields. Flooding is not anticipated with this system, outside of some urban flooding. The Mississippi River is still running high, but many tributaries are running below flood stage and should be able to handle the rainfall from this week’s storm.

MID MONTH CHILL: The upper level trough is still on the model run. This will lead to cooler than average temperatures at mid-month with a few chances of rain. Once the trough breaks down, a new one will move into the western part of the country bringing a large ridge over the eastern half leading to much warmer conditions as we head into the week before Memorial Day.