[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWGSJQzJD3s&hl=en&fs=1]

TWO CALM DAYS: Today and Wednesday will be calm across the state, with lighter winds and no chance of showers and thunderstorms. There may be a sprinkle across the far northeastern counties on Wednesday with a disturbance moving north of the state but other than a few clouds, there should be no issues.

THURSDAY: Another storm moves in Thursday, and will come in several pieces over a several day period. First off, a front will be situated south of the state. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to fire along and north of the front and move into the state. Some of the storms could be strong, but it’s too early to determine whether or not they will be severe (the Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook for Thursday was not out as of this posting). The showers and thunderstorms may linger across the eastern counties through the morning hours of Friday before exiting.

WEEKEND: The main event looks to be coming late Saturday into Sunday with showers and thunderstorms developing along a cold front. This run shows the front moving through during the morning and early afternoon hours. If this comes to pass, chances of severe weather will be low without a lot of daytime heating to make the atmosphere unstable. If the next few model runs slow the storm down, it could be a severe weather event for areas mainly east of I-35 Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours.

FLOODING: See the latest update below.