[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3jwb4kga3g&hl=en&fs=1]

SEVERE WEEK: The beginning of the week and the beginning of spring will be a very stormy one across the state. A slight risk of severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the western 2/3rds of the state for today and tonight (mainly tonight). Large hail looks to be the main threat with storms that fire. The entire state gets in on the act Tuesday with a slight risk of severe weather, however the probabilities are much higher Tuesday than today, there could be a chance that it may get upgraded to moderate, but it’s too early for that. All modes of severe weather are possible on Tuesday, large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes (especially closer to the stalled front). With regards to the front, the GFS and the NAM (not seen on video) have the warm front situated across the central portions of the state than dropping SE into central Illinois, while the WRF has the low in SE Nebraska with the front stalled over northern Missouri. Also the WRF has most of the northern 2/3rds of Iowa stuck in the 30s and lower 40s Tuesday which would NOT be conducive for severe weather let alone thunderstorms. Believing the WRF to be an outlier, the best estimate for storms Tuesday will be between 2pm and 10pm, with the best chances of severe weather south of Interstate 80.

WEEKEND MISERY: Cold air will be in place as the weekend approaches, with another storm moving in. Rain snow mix could be possible Friday night with all rain Saturday before switching back to a rain snow mix Sunday as the storm departs.