Below is a portion of the Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in Des Moines with regards to the snow storm this coming week.

WELL ADVERTISED SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM…THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH EASTWARD…AND PHASE WITH THIS NORTHERN WAVE. MODELS ARE IN STRIKINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TIMING HAS SPEED UP A TOUCH…AND THEREFORE HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM…WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM…AND ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WELL SATURATED.

SURFACE LOW FROM ROCKIES WILL PUSH EASTWARD…TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS…BEFORE LIFTING AND PIVOTING NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS SOLUTION IS FURTHER EAST THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS…BUT STILL HAS A LARGE IMPACT ON IOWA…WITH GREATEST IMPACT…FROM DEF ZONE PRECIP…ACROSS SE IOWA. LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE TUESDAY…AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS IOWA. EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES MEAN THE DENDRITIC ZONE IS NEARLY COMPLETELY SATURATED…WITH GOOD SNOW PRODUCTION. SNOW RATIOS PUSH 20:1 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TOWARDS END OF DAY TUESDAY. ATTM…TOTALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NEAR 10 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST…COULD SEE NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW IN CENTRAL IOWA…WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. 2 FEET IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SE. HOWEVER…A BIG HOWEVER…EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT…STILL AM NOT SOLD ON PLACEMENT OF SYSTEM ON DAY 3. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TRACK OF LOW CHANGE…ESPECIALLY PULLING FURTHER SOUTH OR BACK WESTWARD. THIS WOULD HAVE A DRASTIC IMPACT ON PLACEMENT OF SNOWFALL TOTALS.
NEXT BIG CONCERN TURNS TO WINDS. LOW DEEPENS ACROSS MISSOURI…AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE UPPED WINDS…ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 MPH ARE LIKELY…WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER. THIS WILL POSE A LARGE PROBLEM…WITH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

ALL THIS SAID…NOT READY TO UPGRADE ANY WARNING PRODUCTS ATTM WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY SO FAR OUT. IF MODELS HOLD STEADY WITH CURRENT TRACK…OR LATCH ON TO ANOTHER SIMILAR TRACK…WILL NEED TO UPGRADE PRODUCTS…ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAY 3…TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY…TIMEFRAME.

SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD…EXITING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.