There is a slight risk of severe weather for today and tonight for the entire state of Iowa. The main threats will be from large hail and damaging winds, but as the second image on the post shows, there is also a risk of some tornadoes as well. This will be (if it pans out) the first severe weather threat to effect the state in some time. It will also be the first chance of widespread rain in the state this month. Below is what the Storm Prediction Center is saying about today’s event.

EARLY THIS MORNING…NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS ERN KS/MO AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NNEWD INTO ERN NEB/IA. WITH TIME IT APPEARS THE SFC WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT TO A POSITION FROM CNTRL NEB…NEWD ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE FOCUSED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO WRN IA.
00Z NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC HEATING INTO WRN IA THAN THE GFS AND IF THIS OCCURS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PROVE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THAN A WEAKER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A BELT FROM TX INTO IL AT PEAK HEATING…SFC-6KM DEEP LAYER FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40KT WILL ENCOURAGE STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST READINGS IN THE MID 70S WILL FREE SFC-BASED PARCELS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC LOW/COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY…WARM ADVECTION MAY ALSO DRIVE WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WHERE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE ALSO FEASIBLE. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS…ALONG WITH SEVERE WINDS. GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES AND STRONG-VEERING WIND PROFILES A FEW TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR.