There is a slight risk of severe weather for Friday and Friday night for areas in Iowa south of a Sioux City to Muscatine line (this is slightly north of yesterday’s outlook) Below is the SPC Day 2 Outlook regarding the potiental severe weather in and around Iowa.

…MID MO/MID MS VALLEYS SWD INTO SRN AND ERN TX/LA/MS…
A COMPLEX BUT ACTIVE — AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT — SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL U.S. AS THE LARGE/POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. WITH A LARGE WARM SECTOR BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON…AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT/FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR…A VERY BROAD AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT.

HAVING SAID THAT…SORTING OUT DETAILS IN TERMS OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF GREATER SEVERE THREAT REMAINS DIFFICULT ATTM. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS — AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER — WHICH SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD — FOCUSED BOTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM NEB ESEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY…AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT…EXTENDING FROM KS SWD INTO W CENTRAL TX. WITH POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION LIKELY AFFECTED BY THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ONGOING…AND WITH SOME QUESTIONS EVIDENT IN MODEL TIMING/LOCATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES…WILL REFRAIN FROM AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK THIS FORECAST.

HAVING SAID THAT…SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT — POSSIBLY CONCENTRATED WITHIN TWO SEPARATE AREAS.

THE FIRST AREA — NEAR THE OCCLUDED FRONT/TRIPLE POINT/WARM FRONT ZONE FROM NEB EWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO NRN MO/SRN IA — APPEARS TO CONTAIN THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.
HERE…VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR — BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER — IS EXPECTED. WHILE QUESTIONS REGARDING DESTABILIZATION EXIST…INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO FUEL A CONVECTIVE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT…EXPECT SUPERCELLS — INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES…ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

Besides the tornado threat, large hail and damaging winds will be possible as well with any thunderstorms that will develop along the northward advancing warm front. Things can change in the next 24 hours including any possible upgrade to moderate or shifts in the risk area. Another post will be upcoming this afternoon.