The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center this afternoon has upgraded much of north central and northeast Iowa to a somewhat uncommon moderate risk of severe weather. The Mesoscale Convective System expected to impact the state later tonight has already formed in central Minnesota with an associated damaging wind threat. A very ripe environment is in place with warm temperatures and a saturated air mass leading to an extreme destabilization of the atmosphere. This combined with deep shear aloft will create an environment favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms.

Storms are expected to maintain a discrete structure initially as they move generally southeast. As the evening moves on, storms will likely cluster up into one or more segments with the primary threat transitioning to intense damaging wind gusts alongside that. It is worth noting that a mention of a derecho has been thrown around several times by the weather service, only continuing the concern of wind gusts over 70-80 MPH for a long period of time. This is something that needs to be watched carefully over the next several hours.

With continued indications that a strong low-level jet will remain in place tonight, it can be expected that the severe risk will last into the overnight hours. This is why an enhanced risk is over nearly all of the state, a vast change from the previous outlooks. Nonetheless, it would be a good idea to keep a very close eye on the weather. Make sure to have a way to receive warnings tonight and be prepared to take action should warnings be issued.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information.