A low pressure system will be moving across the region today, making it’s way from eastern Nebraska through central Iowa during the overnight tonight. A cold front will extend to the south of this, overtaking a dry line in the process and setting up the stage for storm development later today.

As temperatures rise across the state, gradual destabilization will occur. This will really be dependent on how much daytime heating we are able to have – the more clearing by this afternoon, the greater the instability will be. As instability increases, a cap over the boundary layer will weaken as well, allowing for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop. Instability, in conjunction with deep shear, will be optimal for several organized supercells to form. All modes of severe weather will be possible alongside this, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. This is especially the case with the mode being isolated/discrete initially. Storms should last late into the night, likely eventually transitioning to a damaging wind threat as the primary mode becomes linear. Even then, spin-ups will continue to be possible.

In any case, it would be a good idea to have an eye on the skies tonight and stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watch can be anticipated from the SPC at some point this afternoon.