An upper-level storm system across the region today is expected to bring active weather back into the state. A surface low will shift eastward into the central Plains later today with an associated dryline extending southward. This will be overtaken by a cold front later in the night.

Modest instability for this time of year with dew points in the 50s will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area. With deep shear involved as well, organized supercells will be able to form in the Plains and eventually moving eastward into the area later in the evening. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado. The best tornado threat will be held to the southern extent of the state along the Iowa and Missouri border. As the cold front overtakes the aforementioned dryline in the evening, things are expected to transition into a more linear setup with damaging winds the primary threat.

There are a few wild cards that will make this a conditional risk. The first will be morning showers and thunderstorms over the area. This can easily ruin a forecast – removing the necessary daytime heating for instability and therefore the severe risk as well. This may happen with cloud cover potentially sticking around longer than anticipated. If showers and thunderstorms are ongoing through noon, the later day severe threat may be easily mitigated. It’s also worth noting that a better severe weather threat will exist to the south – moisture may be isolated to this area with a lesser moisture return to the north.

At this time it’s a wait and see event. Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest updates.