The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted an elevated risk of severe weather across east central and southeastern Iowa today.

A long line of showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing early this morning across western Iowa with lightning and heavy rain the primary threats. This activity will push northeast-to-east through the rest of tonight and likely weaken. As always, this can play a big wild card in the forecast today… clouds and morning convection can easily bust a forecast. However, this should all be in Illinois before the peaking heating period really kicks in. Another thing to keep an eye on with this convection is where boundaries are potentially laid out after the system… as this can have different synoptic effects also.

Low-level westerly winds will continue to push a large chunk of moisture northward from the Gulf Coast. Dew points will be in the 50s throughout the region… potentially even in the upper 50s to low 60s in some spots, which is a bit uncommon for this time of year. The best area for this action will be near the warm front and low pressure center in Illinois later this afternoon. With modest buoyancy during this period, initiation can be expected in eastern Iowa and eastern Missouri as another shortwave hits the front/low center mentioned. This is definitely further west than anticipated and showcases the rather low predictability with models lately, and further changes can be anticipated. It would be a good idea to check back in at noon for the latest information and short term updates.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, potentially severe, will begin developing this afternoon and evening across the elevated risk outlined. All modes of severe weather are possible with this system, including organized supercells. Soundings have been showing veering of winds aloft, suggesting a tornado threat will exist as well. The best tornado threat area anticipated right now is across southeastern Iowa, northeastern Missouri, and west central Illinois, essentially where the SPC 5% tornado risk exists. The best chances for a tornado will be early as the cells are more discrete… the overall tornado threat will lessen if they become linear. Aside from the tornado issue, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. Storms may eventually end up lining up into a mesoscale convective system… though this will be east of the state by that point.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest updates!