There is a slight risk of severe weather for today and tonight for most of the state except the extreme NW. The main threats are as follows. Large Hail (Afternoon through Overnight), Damaging Winds (Evening-Overnight) and isolated tornadoes (Evening).

The storms will fire along and north of an advancing warm front, this morning which is in southern Kansas into southwestern Missouri. The front will begin to move northward today. It is dependent on where the front is located this afternoon on what type of severe weather the state may get. First, the storms that fire this afternoon in southern Iowa will likely be elevated so tornadoes and strong winds will not be a major threat at that time, but some large hail is possible. As the front draws closer, more surface based thunderstorms will fire leading to better chances of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes mainly south of Interstate 80 before Midnight. After that time the severe weather threat will begin to diminish.

There is also a heavy rain threat with these storms. 1-2 inches of rain is possible with these storms (even if you don’t get a severe storm). This could lead to some flash flooding in poorly drained areas. The storms will continue into Tuesday where there is another slight risk in effect for the SE 2/3rds of the state.