All of Iowa, Severe Weather

AFD from NWS Des Moines on Storm Monday

Below is from the area forecast discussion from the NWS in Des Moines.

AN ACTIVE AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. 12Z MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THIS AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED BUT DECENT SHEAR JUST TO OUR SOUTH…IN NORTHERN MISSOURI…SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE STORMS THERE AND ITS QUITE POSSIBLE FOR THEM TO TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS INTO IA MONDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. OVER 100 KTS OF SHEAR IS FORECAST WITH CAPES OF 1200-1800 J/KG. ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER THE STRATUS WILL HAMPER CONVECTION INITIALLY. THAT BEING SAID…MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING SEVERE STORMS FOR MONDAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THIS SYSTEM IS SO DYNAMIC THAT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY PROBLEM WITH STORM INITIATION. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW TORNADOES MONDAY EITHER. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDES UP THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY…ALONG WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.