Below is the Day 3 Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. It’s techincal as always.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT SAT APR 03 2010

VALID 051200Z – 061200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MO RVR VLY EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/UPR MS VLY…

…SYNOPSIS…
PRIMARY UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE WRN STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM…A BROAD BELT OF MODEST WSW FLOW WILL EXIST FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GRTLKS REGION. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL BE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ONE SUCH WAVE SHOULD EJECT ENE ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND UPR GRTLKS REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

…MID-MO RVR VLY INTO THE MIDWEST/UPR MS VLY…
ELEVATED TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS INTO THE LWR OH VLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING…ALONG THE NOSE OF A WSW LLJ. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE PRODUCING ISOLD LARGE HAIL DURING THE MORNING…BUT PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE LATER IN THE DAY AT POINTS FARTHER N.

EXPECT LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NWD ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF ANY MORNING ACTIVITY WITH A WRMFNT REDEVELOPING NWD TO ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AND CNTRL IL. MAGNITUDE OF DIABATIC HEATING IS IN QUESTION…BUT IF CINH CAN BE OVERCOME…FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTN/EVE INVOF THE FRONT WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL…DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.

MEANWHILE…FARTHER TO THE W…THE EML WILL BE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER ACROSS THE MID-MO RVR VLY. HOWEVER…PERSISTENT SFC CONVERGENCE AND AT LEAST WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SFC-BASED STORM INITIATION LATE MONDAY AFTN OVER PARTS OF SERN/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA. FCST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SHOULD STORMS FORM.

AS THE PRIMARY UPR TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT ENE ONTO THE PLNS MONDAY NIGHT…THE SWLY LLJ WILL ACCELERATE AND FOCUS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG/N OF THE RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE CORN BELT INTO THE UPR MS VLY. SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO A NOCTURNAL MCS OR TWO WITH A FEW STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL ACROSS IA…NRN IL AND PERHAPS SRN WI.