Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across much of the Midwest. There are two notable convective systems ongoing in the Plains. The first is a Mesoscale Convective System in South Dakota and the Nebraska panhandle that has an associated eastward-flanking squall line. The second is a Mesoscale Convective Vortex, spinning across south central Kansas. Elsewhere, there are several scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms, one notably in southwestern Iowa and another in northeastern Illinois.

All of this activity shown above will have a drastic effect on the forecast today. If widespread showers and thunderstorms, or even a cloud bank, is left behind in Iowa during the daytime, heating will be drastically reduced, and therefore instability, a key component in the severe weather process, will be minimized. We will not be more certain on this until later this morning as models have had a tough time sorting out the storms early this morning. Personally, there is a lot of concern with the MCS and associated squall line in the northern and central Plains, which will likely arrive in the state near peak heating. There is a pretty good chance that this will dispel the severe weather threat today, but as always, it will need to be monitored. Some solutions have that system shifting more towards the northeast and allowing for this afternoon’s severe weather threat to proceed.

If things can clear out for a short time and warm air advection can heat the area, destabilization will begin to occur. The aerodynamic environment will support superceullular development with wind fields strengthening as a nearby cyclone deepens. Additional energy will arrive later tonight which will help fuel storms. If clouds can clear out and storms can form, things will likely turn supercellular quickly and eventually a multi-cellular event will setup, with damaging winds being the primary threat. Tornadoes will also be possible as vertical shear strengthens. Warm and very moist air will undercut colder air aloft, which will promote heavy rain as a concern also. Much of the area is already saturated from storms the past couple of days and localized ponding of water and even flash flooding will be possible (primarily in the north). For this reason, a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for much of northwest, north central, and west central Iowa from this morning through this evening.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for later updates!