Severe Weather

AFD from the NWS Quad Cities This AM

Here is a portion of the Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in the Quad Cities, including a mention of “POSSIBLE” severe weather along the Mississippi River and into Illinois. NOTE: Most of this is very techinical!

.SHORT TERM…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
RAINFALL TODAY IS NO CERTAIN AS WE HAVE THE DRY SLOT MOVING IN AROUND 12Z IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL. THEREFORE THE WEST AND SOUTH MAY BE RAIN FREE THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON…RESULTING IN A DRY AND BREEZY DAY. THE NORTH AND EAST SHOULD NOT SEE THE DRY SLOT UNTIL AFTER 14Z…AND ARE GOING TO NEED CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT SINCE PCPN IS MOVING SO FAST…AND CONVECTION IS FOUND IN SMALL CELLS WHICH DO NOT COVER MUCH TERRITORY UNDER THEM. IN OTHER WORDS…ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE BRIEF.

MORE OF A CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FOR SHALLOW MINI SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE WORKING THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE 18Z TO 21Z PERIOD…AND PRIOR TO THIS…THE DRY SLOT SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING ENOUGH SUN TO HEAT UP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SHALLOW CAPE WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO PRODUCE ROTATING UPDRAFTS…AND POSSIBLE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW…AND CHANCE POPS AT MOST SEEM WARRANTED. WILL COVER THIS THREAT IN THE HWO TODAY…BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW COVERAGE STORMS IF IT OCCURS. OTHERWISE…TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY TODAY…WITH MILD IN THE EAST AND SEASONALLY COOL IN THE WEST.