Iowa Weather Report June 15th 2015: Sunscreen and Frilly Umbrellas

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THE WEEK AHEAD: There is still a chance of some showers and thunderstorms today mainly over the southeastern half of the state. The northwestern counties should remain mostly dry with some peeks of sunshine by the afternoon hours there. Highs today across the state will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. We should see a break in the activity on Tuesday for most of the state except perhaps the far southern tier of counties. Otherwise there will be partly to mostly sunny skies for the rest of the state with readings in the 70s to near 80. Looking at the rest of the week, the chances of showers and thunderstorms return again on Wednesday and looks to last through the rest of the week and into the weekend. They will be scattered around and not everyone will get rain every day. There will be numerous hours of dry weather and possible sunshine as well. Readings will be in the 70s and 80s through the rest of the week and into the weekend. One fly in the forecast could be a tropical entity currently over the western Gulf of Mexico. It is currently forecast to move just south and east of the state at mid-week. This would take most of the precipitation south and east of the state. However if the system were to move farther north and or west. The forecast may be adjusted to reflect those changes. Nevertheless, rainfall amounts through Friday at least will range between a half inch and one and a half inches. If the tropical entity were to move over the area, those amounts would have to be increased.

TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH: As we look into the extended period which takes us through the rest of the month of June, the period starts with a trough over the Great Lakes and a ridge building over the southwest. That will keep the state in a northwesterly flow which would help to keep temperatures at or slightly below seasonal levels. This pattern would also bring several systems through the state every few days or so. The flow tries to turn more zonal toward the end of the period but the GFS shows a vortex over Hudson Bay keeping the flow mainly out of the west-northwest at the end of the period. We’ll see if this continues or if we see a ridge develop as we’ve seen in earlier runs.