Only change to mention in this mornings forecast is to note that the elevated risk of severe weather posted by the Storm Prediction Center has been trimmed back to areas generally west of a line from Mason City to Clarinda. A low pressure center will be the foundation of a warm front which will pass through the region today before a cold front behind it will kick into the state and set the stage for the severe weather threat this afternoon. Moisture is expected to be bountiful with dew points in the low to mid 50s (decent enough for this time of year) with daytime temperatures heating up to the 70s in most places. A cap will be in place early in the day before it begins to erode as things heat up across the area.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon hours over southwestern Minnesota through southeastern South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. These storms will move into the state by the evening hours and then eastward and southeastward through the state. We expect that cells initially will have access to some shear and pose a large hail threat before things transition to a linear damaging wind threat. The main window for severe weather will be between 5-11pm this evening before the storms weaken below severe weather limits. Some beneficial rainfall will be seen as well with many areas receiving at least a half to three quarters of an inch of rain from these storms. The thunderstorms will linger into the morning hours on Thursday in our eastern counties before slowly moving out of the state by the mid-day hours on Thursday with cooler and drier air moving in for the end of the week.

Models have been a bit uncertain as of late on the moisture that would enter the area. Obviously, this could hinder some things that could happen later today. However, most of these were short term models that just began looking into the period and there have not been enough runs to see consistency and such. The three major models we like to look at, the GFS, NAM12, and NAM4, have all been fairly consistent with this and we are not looking to change the forecast at this point in time due to this. We will continue to monitor these trends later today and issue updated forecasts as needed.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information!

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