The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted an enhanced risk of severe weather over the area today. As a strong storm system ejects moves into the northern to central Plains, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail over two inches, damaging winds to 75 MPH later in the night, tornadoes, and flash flooding.

Temperatures are expected to heat into the 80s and 90s across the state with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s along a cold front that will move into the central Plains this afternoon. This will help create strong instability by the mid-afternoon to evening hours from northern Kansas through eastern Nebraska and into western Iowa. One thing we will have to monitor is ongoing storms and cloudiness currently ongoing across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This could easily put a end to the severe weather potential for today, unless it can move out of the area quickly enough to allow for heating. Either way, the majority of the cap should hold and keep from organized storms from developing. By afternoon, this story will likely change with the cap eroding and more storms developing.

Any thunderstorms that do develop will quickly turn super-cellular, thanks to strong instability and modest shear. The best chance for large hail and tornadoes will be during this period, with the possibility of two inch hail and strong tornadoes also existing. Later in the evening, storms should begin to merge together and form a squall line and transition to a damaging wind threat/mesoscale convective system overnight. As this transitions (more than likely as it crosses I-35), damaging wind gusts in the 65-75 MPH range will be possible. EVERYONE in the state should be monitoring this threat.

If you have travel plans for anywhere around this region, you should be monitoring and keeping up to date with the latest information around these areas. The area with the most concern is currently centered in the northwestern one-fourth of the state, where the chance of strong tornadoes and very large hail will be highest.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information as we continue to watch this threat very closely.

Henry Luker | Lead Forecaster
Jeff Wilcox | Senior Forecaster