CHANGE OR NOT TO CHANGE: The sunshine afternoon cloud routine doesn’t look to change a whole lot today and Monday across the state. There could be some chances of seeing some isolated showers and storms during the afternoon today and tomorrow but to say where is up in the air. Most places won’t get anything but we can’t rule out the chance at this point. The next system looks to approach by Tuesday afternoon and may last through Friday according to the GFS. This is possibly due to two factors. One, tropical Storm Bertha is projected to recurve off the east coast. This would tend to slow or even halt systems from moving anywhere, in turn a storm could get slowed down by a day because of this. The second reason is the GFS is showing a high pressure system coming down from Canada over the Great Lakes. This would also slow any systems from moving to the east. Best thinking is that the chances of rain will be mainly over the western half of the state Tuesday afternoon moving through most of the state Tuesday night into early Wednesday and then the high to our east keep the system from moving any farther. This would mean the best chances of precipitation in the state after Wednesday afternoon and evening would be in the western and central counties. Since this is the first time we’ve seen this set up, we’re not too confident in this thinking. This would mean that the state fair could see some rain Thursday and even on Friday as well. (Friday looking better than Thursday). We’ll keep watching for any changes in this in the coming days. Readings during this period will be in the 80s except areas where areas where storms may linger longer, readings there may only be in the 70s.

NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH SCHOOLTIME: Heading into next weekend, the shower and thunderstorm threat doesn’t really go away. There will be some breaks with some sunshine around. High temperatures will be dependent on the amount of sunshine we see during these breaks, so 80s will be somewhat common but cooler in areas with more clouds around. Heading farther out, the GFS is showing the northwesterly flow returning once more with a system around the 12th and another around the 14th that will reinforce cool air coming down from Canada once again. This would drop readings back into the 70s to lower 80s for highs, with lower humidity around as well. The northwesterly flow will begin to flatten out toward the end of the period but we’ll have to wait and see about that as well.

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