The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a moderate risk of severe weather for a small sliver of Des Moines and Keokuk counties, mainly affecting Burlington, and an enhanced risk of severe weather over a large portion of southeastern Iowa. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, an enhanced damaging wind threat, and tornadoes.
A low pressure center currently near the Kansas City metro with an associated cold front extending into Minnesota and a warm front extending into the south is expected to gradually move into southeast into east central Iowa today. This will be the focal point for thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across southern South Dakota and Minnesota. These storms are not expected to become severe. However, they are throwing into a wrench into the forecast because of the unexpectedness of it all. Many short term weather models did not show these storms developing at 2-3 am, but rather 8am or 9am. There are even more discrepancies surrounding what will happen with these storms and whether they will continue moving quickly, slow down, or dive bomb south along I-29. Each of these situations will have an impact on the forecast for today.
Current storms in South Dakota are expected to continue moving eastward at their current pace. With this, there will not be a lot of clouds, allowing for daytime heating to commence across the region and further enhance the storms. If this trend continues and no re-development occurs north of the border, cells should begin to fire this afternoon into early evening across southern Iowa and northern Missouri and become severe as they move east. Instability produced from the high moisture, combined with high shear will contribute to an enhanced damaging wind threat. Large hail and tornadoes will also be possible with the discrete cells. A more organized line/threat should be rolling by evening.
Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest updates!
Henry Luker | Lead Forecaster