The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a moderate risk of severe weather over the area today. A low pressure center will move to the east into northern Ontario with a strong upper jet/trough over the upper midwest region today. A cold front will also move to the southeast into the midddle to lower Mississippi River Valley and be a focal point for thunderstorm development later this afternoon.

As with all of the severe weather risks this week, a wild card will be at play with this forecast. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early this morning over the state with some redevelopment of storms across the Central Plains and into western Iowa. Some of these storms will have the possibility of becoming surface-based this morning, but the more likely solution will be that they gradually weaken early this morning with associated boundary-level stabilization. The wild cards with this is that we are not completely certain of when these storms will weaken, or how or where the boundaries will be laid out over the area.

Nonetheless, relatively speaking, upper-level forcing will be perfectly setup and kept relative to peak heating. When combined with very high instability, strong shear, a moist air mass, and several other severe ingredients, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, tornadoes, and an enhanced widespread damaging wind threat over the region. Thunderstorms should begin developing this afternoon across Iowa, east of the southeastward moving cold front. As mentioned earlier, a very moist air mass with dew points in the low to mid 70s will enhance destabilization/mixed layer CAPE to nearly 5000 J/KG. Nearly 40-50 MPH shear will support intense and organized supercells with a tornado threat early. Storms are expected to be discrete early before evolving into a line with a organized damaging wind threat.

Flash flooding is also a major concern with many areas likely already experiencing some flooding or are very saturated. Caution should be exercised in areas that have already experienced this activity and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest severe weather information!

Henry Luker | Lead Forecaster