STORMY PERIODS: It looks as if we are heading into a potential stormy pattern across the state for the next several days. The situation is still very fluid at this time and some changes are possible depending on what happens on preceding days. Today we’ll see some partly to mostly sunny skies to start before thunderstorms are expected to fire off to the west. These storms will then move across the state bringing with it a chance of some severe thunderstorms. There has been some discrepancy regarding where the storms would fire and where they would traverse. This run of the GFS is showing the storms would be mainly north of US Hwy 30 with the southern counties seeing no precipitation at all. Other models have had the storms farther south, others have had the storms almost missing the state entirely. We could see similar weather Tuesday through Thursday as well but those storm chances will be dependent on what happens with other storms in the days preceding. Any of these storm complexes during this time could bring some severe weather (although we can’t pinpoint much past tonight at this point) along with the chance of seeing some heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding. Highs through this period will be mainly in the 80s to near 90, however Tuesday looks to be warmer than that with upper 80s to lower 90s across the state with heat indices at or exceeding 100 in some areas. A post regarding the severe weather event later today will be posted later this morning.

MORE STORMS: This stormy pattern may even continue into the weekend as well with a system slow to move out of the area. This would keep the chances of showers and thunderstorms around with some heavy rain possible along with the chance any of these possible storms turning strong to severe. As mentioned earlier, this is a fluid situation where we may not be able to pinpoint where storms will be until 24-36 hours beforehand due to where storms will be in days prior. Highs will remain in the 80s for the weekend with some sunshine around as all these storms chances will not be all day rains at this point.

THE REST OF THE MONTH: The pattern looks to change by a week from now (if this is to be believed) with the system finally moving away and cooler drier air coming in from the northwest. We’ll see if this trend continues on upcoming model runs. Farther out in the extended period, the cooler and drier weather may last a few days before the pattern returns to what we might get this week with several complexes of showers and storms once again along a stalled boundary. Given the fluid nature of this week’s activity and how it may change drastically from day to day, in no way are we going to speculate on a similar pattern two weeks from now.

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