The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a enhanced risk of severe weather over the state today. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding.

One variable that could ‘make or break’ this threat is the possibility of ongoing morning storms across South Dakota and Minnesota, thanks to a low level jet over the Central Plains. If these storms stick around or slow down, it would allow less time for the atmosphere to heat up and therefore would keep the atmosphere stable. However, we expect based on modeling solutions that the storms in South Dakota and Minnesota to either weaken or move out of the primary risk area and allow destabilization to occur and would leave a boundary, which would be the key for storm development expected in the mid-afternoon.

A lot of moisture will be around the area tomorrow with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the state. Instability will likely be in the 2000-3000 J/KG range with the best instability south of any remaining boundary. With the low-level jet moving into northern Iowa and southern Minnesota during the day, large hodographs with 35-45 knot shear will lead to very intense supercells with very large hail and a damaging wind threat. During the evening, the primary threats will likely tune to a organized damaging wind and flash flooding threat. The storms should weaken as they move further east.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest severe weather information!

Henry Luker | Lead Forecaster
Jeff Wilcox | Senior Forecaster