The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow over the majority of southern Iowa. A trough currently centered near California will eject itself eastward into the Plains tomorrow alongside a stationary front that will extend from Ohio to Nebraska. A boundary is expected to setup in southern Iowa or northern Missouri with this being the focus for the best severe weather potential tomorrow.

Multiple key ingredients for severe weather will be available for tomorrow with the headliner being dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s near the boundary, which will showcase the rich Gulf moisture that will come with any storms that do develop. The location of this boundary is still uncertain at this point but we currently predict that it will set up shop in southern Iowa and be the gunpoint for severe thunderstorms. Combining strong instability in the atmosphere and a strengthening low level jet overhead to trigger the storms will likely create a long cluster of thunderstorms with organized supercellular cells likely.

Storms should begin developing across Nebraska in the late evening and evolve into a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) and push east to southeast through the overnight hours. The primary threats look to be widespread damaging winds, large hail to two inches in diameter, and tornadoes. There is also an associated flash flood risk with the ground already being saturated enough from the previous two days of storms. Any additional rainfall will likely cause flash flooding. We would not be surprised to see Flash Flood Watches come tonight in advance of this system.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information on this system.

FACEBOOK: facebook.com/IowaWeather
TWITTER: twitter.com/IowaWXNetwork

Henry Luker | Lead Forecaster
Jeff Wilcox | Senior Forecaster