After a quick day of rest, it looks like additional chance for thunderstorms (potentially severe ones) will return to the area through Monday.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted an elevated risk of severe weather over Iowa today. A large upper level system in the northwest is currently in the process of dropping down into the Great Basin area this morning. Two low pressure systems are currently located in the Plains this morning, with a occluded front with the first center in the High Plains and a cold front with the second center in the Central Plains.

Instability, in combination with dew points in the 50s, will likely have storms developing in the late evening and eventually moving eastward. Any storms that do develop will have the potential of large hail and damaging winds, but we do not expect too many severe storms due to the primary upper level system staying west as well as lack of frontal convergence.

Tomorrow will be a bigger day for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has Iowa under a MODERATE risk of severe weather. Current forecast has precipitation out of the area by the early morning hours Sunday with trough across the western United States, allowing a southwest flow with moisture flooding into the atmosphere. Dry weather is expected for the most of the morning before thunderstorms begin developing in the afternoon.

The main issue will be cloud cover and how long the rain will remain in the area in the morning. If the previous system can clear out quickly and we can quickly warm up, we could be looking at a potential severe weather outbreak across the area Sunday. In this scenario, instability would be tremendous, and in combination with shear, would create an all-mode severe weather event with heightened possibility of tornadoes, especially near the warm front. We expect storms to begin developing in the afternoon across the Plains and continue moving east in a very unstable and moist environment. Large hail and damaging winds would be other threats. This does look like a very real threat and you need to stay weather aware tomorrow.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information!

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