The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a Moderate Risk of Severe Weather over a large portion of Iowa today. A large upper trough is expected to move into the Plains on Thursday, accompanied by a low pressure center and warm front combo that will stretch across northern Iowa and serve as a focal point for organized severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and tonight.

Three key components of severe weather will allow storms to begin developing in the afternoon – instability, shear, and moisture. Instability during the day will depend a lot on whether the storms from this morning are able to move out of the area and allow temperatures to heat up to the 70s and 80s during the day. In combination with dew points in the 60s, thunderstorms should be able to develop during the afternoon and be able to create large, organized, and supercellular thunderstorms that will be supported by modest shear. Very large hail to nearly three inches in diameter will be possible with any thunderstorms that do develop and tornadoes will be possible, especially near the warm front.

Current thinking is that the main time frame for the severe weather will be between 1pm and 10pm today before the storms congeal into a mass of storms and move east out of the state by early on Friday morning.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information!

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