A lot of uncertainty exists today with the elevated risk of severe weather that has been posted over western Iowa. Several severe ingredients are coming together that are supportive of severe weather, all in association with a low pressure system moving into the plains tonight. Storms are expected to develop across the west overnight with strong to severe thunderstorms possible with the primary threat being large hail. The system should continue moving east overnight and weaken, however heavy rain will remain. This brings in a concern of localized flooding and river flooding, especially across the eastern half of the state where the ground is already saturated from recent rain.

 

 

Sunday is looking to become the more active day in terms of severe weather. We will likely see thunderstorms from Saturday remaining the morning with some storms being strong, but likely not severe. Thunderstorms should be out of the area by midday, clearing the way for instability to shift into southwest Iowa along a warm front. Multiple key ingredients of severe weather will be able to be tapped into, including shear, moisture, and instability. The sufficient shear will likely lead to organized thunderstorms with supercells. Storms are expected to begin firing in the afternoon and continue expanding in coverage and strengthening as they move through the Middle Mississippi River Valley overnight.

A full suite of threats will be with possible with this system, including the headliner of very large hail, and being supported by a damaging wind and flash flooding threat. A few tornadoes are also possible, especially in southwest Iowa. For the flash flooding threat, localized and river flooding will be likely, especially on Sunday night into Monday. Those that are in low-lying areas or near creeks or rivers should pay close attention to the forecast and current conditions over the next couple of days.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest severe weather information!

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