Winter storm still looks likely for Southeastern Minnesota starting tomorrow. Significant accumulations up to 6″ with higher amounts not out of question. Then very cold arctic air sinks south for next week.

Regional weather view.

Attention continues to be on a winter storm that will effect the Upper Midwest this weekend. The heaviest snow should fall in Northwestern Iowa, Southeastern Minnesota and Western/Central Wiscosnin exenting up into the UP of Michigan, significant snowfall is a possibly in these areas. Further north and west Minor accumulations are likely. Southeast of the significant snowfall potential area will deal with a mix of rain sleet and snow. Further southeast yet will have just plain rain. Arctic air will pour southeast as the system departs the region. The coldest temperatures of the season so far are likely for many areas.

Local View

Note: There is still a little time for the models to shift this storm system. any shift at all would effect totals significantly and precip type, so this map will be subject to changes.

As of right now, Locally and for the Rochester metro the first significant snowstorm of the season is still on track to hit our area starting tomorrow. Heavy snowfall effecting travel along with some areas getting low end significant snowfall amounts is likely at this point. The first waves of Snowfall will start to enter our area Saturday morning, and should be on the lighter side. but during the afternoon and during evening hours as this storm gets it’s act together moderate to heavy snowfall will likely move into the area possible. Highs Saturday will be in the low 30s with lows falling into the mid 20s. Flurries could last into the morning hours Sunday, but if not we can expect a chilly cloudy day with highs not making it out of the 20s. Lows will fall into the teens overnight Sunday Night. Monday and Tuesday Under arctic sunshine and night time clear skies both days Very cold arctic air will pour southeast bringing in very cold temperatures. It is likely that highs will not get out of the 10s to low 20s Monday and Tuesday. and lows will surly be well into the single digits possible approaching near zero in a few spots. This is far colder then any temperatures we’ve experienced so far this mild fall season we’ve had.

Snowfall totals and impacts.
Accumulations are not longer in question, it is likely that a large swath of 4-8″ will fall throughout all parts the local area. I had mentioned before some places may get up to 10″ but now it seems that 8″ will probably be closer to the high end. are not out of the question. The areas with the best chances of 4+ inches will be southeast of a line from Kenyon to Frontenac. Heavy snowfall is likely with this storm especially Saturday evening, becuase of this travel issues and restricting snows will also be likely. But the good news is this is the weekend Rochester metro rush hour traffic will not be effected. Because temps will be in the lower 30s and there will be a lack of wind early in the system, the heavy snow could cause breaking of some limbs of conifers and pines. People in southern Minnesota should be prepared for a winter storm this weekend.

Cold arctic air follows behind storm.

Wither we get the highest totals in this storm or not one thing known for sure is that significantly colder air will slide southeast by the start of next week. This is especially true with the snowcover we will have on the ground. This is why I’m calling this a season changing snow becuase it is likely that once we get a thick snowcover it will a sticking snow, and temperatures will be effected. Highs as cold as the upper 10s are likely on Tuesday, with lows approaching zero in some areas. Although this is fairly typical for a southeastern Minnesota winter, becuase it has been a very warm fall, people will find these temperatures quite cold.

Saturday,Chilly. A good chance of snow. Starting off late becoming heavy in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 30s. Saturday Night, A good chance of snow, heavy at times. Lows in the mid 20s.

Sunday, Snowstorm totals 4-8″ Chilly and breezy. A chance of flurries in the morning, otherwise cloudy with highs in the upper 20s. Sunday Night, Cloudy with lows in the low to mid teens.

Monday, Cold! Arctic sunshine with highs in the low 20s. Monday Night,Very Cold! Coldest night of the season so far. Clear skies with lows in the mid single digits possible approaching 0 in a few areas.

Tuesday, Cold! Arctic sunshine with highs in the teens to low 20s. Tuesday Night, Very Cold! Clear skies with lows in the mid to upper single digits.

There will be no looking ahead forecast at this time. Forecast attention is on a potential significant winter storm.