All of Iowa, Severe Weather

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY FRIDAY

743
Here is the discussion from the Storm Prediction Center regarding the possible if not likely severe weather event this coming Friday. More details in the coming days with this system.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013

VALID 041200Z – 091200Z

…DISCUSSION…
…FRIDAY D4: NEB…IA…MN…WI…
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ON FRI/D4 ANYWHERE FROM FAR ERN NEB INTO
IA…SRN MN…AND SWRN WI.

THE WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY/D4…WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NEB/IA
BORDER FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON…CONTINUING NEWD INTO MN OVERNIGHT.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ON THE ORDER OF 65-68 F WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR…E OF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
TRAILING S FROM THE SURFACE LOW…AND S OF A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN INTO CNTRL WI.

DUE TO COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM…MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR…PERHAPS NEAR 8.0 C/KM…ATOP A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN CLASSIC LOADED GUN PROFILES.
HODOGRAPHS WILL BE VERY LARGE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK…AND WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES…SOME POSSIBLY STRONG
…AND
VERY LARGE HAIL. A FASTER MOVING FRONT OR EARLIER INITIATION COULD
LEAD TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS…BUT DETAILS SUCH
AS THESE HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT.