Prepared by Henry Luker, Interim Meteorologist-in-Charge

A question I get asked many times: will severe weather be making a return anytime soon? That’s a question that has been a firm “no” over the last few weeks. But that may change beginning Tuesday.

An upper low is forecasted to be centered over central to southern Manitoba Tuesday, with a shortwave, or a “kink” in the weather pattern, rotating into the Dakotas and Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. A low pressure trough is expected to extend from Minnesota and Wisconsin into Kansas, providing ample moisture across the region to create some low to moderate stability across the region. Supercells will likely begin forming along the cold front, packing with it a large hail threat during the day and a damaging wind threat, especially if the storms can being bowing out. An isolated tornado also can not be ruled out. For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued an occasionally-issued elevated severe weather risk for Tuesday in the 4-8 outlook for northern Iowa.