The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has posted a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for much of Southern Iowa on the day Tuesday. A strong upper level trough over the Western states should break into multiple impulses, in which one will be the foundation for severe weather for our area on Tuesday. One of the impulses will move Northeastward into the Central High Plains to Mid Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon, providing the overall foundation for severe weather on Tuesday night.

Models have come into better agreement with this system in the last 24 hours. A moderately unstable air mass will become more widespread across the country with dew points in the mid to upper 70’s. Underneath this, a large cap should generally prohibit thunderstorm development for the majority of the day. Any daytime thunderstorm development should stay farther south where a dry line and cold front will intersect. As the night goes on… thunderstorms should increase and supercells will be possible across the risk area as the cap weakens and the atmosphere destabilizes. The primary threat with this should be large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes will be little to none as the undercutting with this low pressure system should limit any updrafts.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest on this system.