[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkI_BPJ7VjM&w=480&h=360]
CARBON COPY: Today will be similar to yesterday with partly to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 40s NE to lower 60s south. Clouds will be on the increase from west to east during the day as the first in a series of storm systems approaches from the west.
ACTIVE TIME: Showers and a few thunderstorms will move into the state during the overnight hours tonight into Saturday There could be a break during the late morning and early afternoon hours before showers and storms refire on the advancing cold front moving through the state. Severe weather is not expected with this system and amounts will be light between a tenth and a quarter inch with isolated heavier totals in areas where thunderstorms occur. The next system will be right on the heels of the first after a break for a good portion of the day Sunday, rain and possible thunderstorms move back in during the overnight Sunday night over southern and western Iowa and encompassing most of the state by Monday morning. Rainfall with this system looks to be the heaviest over southern Iowa with perhaps another quarter to third of an inch with isolated heavier totals. Any severe weather Monday will be well south and southwest of the state as a low pressure center develops over southeastern Colorado. The targeted areas look to be over Kansas, western Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle.
ACTIVE TIME CONTINUES: The low over southeastern Colorado moves slowly northeast to a position north of Dodge City KS by midday Tuesday. Warm air will flood the state with a slight chance of seeing some scattered rain showers during the morning into the early afternoon hours. As the low (according to the GFS) moves northeast across western and central Iowa to a point near Rochester MN by 1am Wednesday, numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the advancing cold front. Severe weather could be possible if the low does move on that path, BUT we haven’t seen the path this far north and northwest in previous runs, so am a little skeptical with this run regarding possible severe weather into the eastern half of the state. Nevertheless this system will have to be watched for any further changes regarding the track of this major system over the next couple of days as it could bring significant weather regardless of where it hits.
ENDING THE ACTIVE WEEK: The system pushes out Wednesday bringing colder air back to the state, some backwash moisture could spit out a sprinkle or a sleet pellet in northern Iowa Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, but nothing too concerning at this time. Thursday will be cooler with highs back into the 40s and 50s with some cloud sun mix across the area.
FAR OUT: More systems look to take aim at the state including a possible potent one around the 18th-19th that could bring some possible active weather to the state.