[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZUKXFlmXAg&w=480&h=360]
SNOW FOR EARLY WEEK: A new storm system will move into the state late today into Tuesday with a chance of light to at times moderate snow. The heaviest snow will occur across the southern and southeastern counties of the state where a Winter Storm Watch was issued early on Sunday. Accumulations there by early Wednesday could be over 6 inches with lighter amounts farther to the north. What is making this storm more tricky than the last one is that the models are screaming higher amounts but there isn’t much confidence in them. The GFS and NAM have been shooting out numbers well over 6 inches for a much larger portion of the state with lighter amounts to the north. Meanwhile NWS and other media outlets have seemingly gone conservative with their projections. We have gone in the middle for the time being. The snow will gradually taper off from west to east on Wednesday as the storm pulls off to the east.
REINFORCING COLD: As the storm moves away, the rest of the week into the upcoming weekend will remain dry but cold as the flow will be coming out of the northwest. A trough will be entrenched in the east with a ridge bringing much warmer weather to the west. Any little disturbance along the northwesterly flow may kick off a few clouds and light flurries but nothing much to measure at this time. Temperatures will be below average for this week into the weekend, although it will be warmer farther west than in the eastern counties.
GROUNDHOG WAS WRONG: Looking past the next seven days, another storm along the northwesterly flow may bring some accumulating snow next Monday into Tuesday (March 4-5th). This reinforces the cold air out of the northwest in time for another strong storm that may bring the state some rain and or snow around the 10-12th of March. We have seen this system several times on the model runs, as a severe weather setup for the state and as a wintry storm for the state. As in yesterday’s run, it looks to bring a polar high out of Canada that may settle into the state for the middle of the month, so St Patrick’s Day may not be too green around these parts if this was to continue.