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SEVERE THREAT: The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe weather for today and tonight for most of the state of Iowa. This does not include the northwestern counties and the northern tier of counties along Iowa Highway 9. The main threats will be from damaging winds and large hail. There is a threat of an isolated tornado or two, but that threat seemingly has moved south into Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma. There will be some morning convection that will bring some activity, non-severe across the state. It’s whether we can clear the convection out by the afternoon or not on whether the severe weather threat remains or not. If it continues to rain throughout the day, the severe weather threat will be gone. There is also a chance that any thunderstorms that develop to the south of the state may rob the moisture from any activity that may develop here. This could lead to much lower rainfall totals than we’re predicting at the moment. With the severe and extreme drought in the state currently, we need all the moisture we can get regardless of whether it brings any severe weather or not.
QUIETING DOWN: The weather will become quiet again with some lingering showers in the morning on Sunday, although some of the models linger the rain throughout the day in the eastern counties. Temperatures will not drop off any behind the front with 50s and 60s for highs through Tuesday. Another system at mid-week may bring some more showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm but severe weather is not expected with that one.
FARTHER OUT: Heading farther out into the month of October, the GFS model is still showing a plunge of much colder air coming in about ten days time. This could bring some flurry activity to the state but nothing more than that. We’ll wait to see if this becomes a trend in future IWR’s.