[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CM_jcBzSug&w=480&h=360]

SEVERE DAYS: The start of what could be a long severe weather episode begins today with a slight risk of severe weather for today and tonight for the western 2/3rds of the state. The main risks from the storms will be large hail (some possibly over 2″ in diameter) and damaging winds. The tornado threat will be minimal with the better parameters trending north into Minnesota. The thunderstorms won’t fire until the middle to latter half of the afternoon, leading to some sunshine and warm temperatures to start. Readings will climb into the 70s and possibly lower 80s across the state. Dew Points will also climb to near 60 in most of the state. As the storms fire they will be supercellular at first and then likely congeal into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and swiftly move across the state from NW to SE. Where ever any boundaries are left over from tonight’s activity will be the focal point for storm initiation on Wednesday, where the entire state is under a slight risk of severe weather. There is an enhanced area over the northern counties of the state for significant severe weather. This will be dependent on what occurs tonight in all likelihood.

ON AND ON: This active pattern continues into the weekend and the first part of next week. There could be a small break on Friday and again Saturday night into Sunday, but Sunday and Monday could bring severe weather back into the state again. A system will set up over the central plains with repeated rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity. We’ll need to keep an eye on this possible storm even as we have severe weather in the offing.

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