The Upper Midwest severe weather threat seems to be growing, as models come into better and better agreement with this forecasted system. This system, in the Dakotas, is expected to bring Showers & Thunderstorms to the area in the mid to late afternoon.
To the right, you can see where the Storm Prediction Center has posted a Slight Risk of Severe Weather. With a warm front moving in Tuesday, the atmosphere is expected to destabilize slowly through the day. Storms will hold off for our area, with a cap (CIN values) in place.
The cap will eventually erode and storms will fire up for our area in the mid to late evening hours. The primary threats of these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are unlikely, with any expected to hook up with that warm front in Eastern North Dakota and Minnesota. The threat could last late into the overnight.
Stay tuned to IASWC for the latest updates as we monitor this storm. Another post will be sent out about the Wednesday threat shortly.