[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eo5099kE-gI&w=480&h=360]

RAINFALL RETURNING: The really cold air will slowly melt away but not before a morning of a hard freeze across a large section of the state. Temperatures over the next few days will climb back into the 60s for highs with some areas getting back to 70 by this weekend. With the warming weather will come rainy weather. A storm system as we’ve discussed over the last few days hasn’t changed much, although the second piece of it is slower on this run. The first piece enters the picture on Thursday evening with some showers and thunderstorms. These will last in a scattered basis through early Saturday, with a bit of a break before piece #2 arrives Sunday.

SECOND PIECE OF RAINFALL: The Sunday event on this run is slower and lasting a longer period of time. Yesterday the storm was out of the state by Monday, but this run has it hanging around until early on Wednesday. Rainfall with these two systems looks to be substantial with 1-2″ likely with isolated heavier totals in any areas that get thunderstorms. Some of the storms could become strong to severe, but as yesterday the best chances of severe weather look to remain to the south and southwest.

REST OF APRIL: Although the model doesn’t quite get to the end of the month, the models having been shifting with regularity regarding warm spells and or storms that may come through. Two weeks out, the model has a pretty substantial storm system moving into the central and northern Plains with some shower and thunderstorm activity around here as well. Like the system expected on Sunday, the model has this system reorganizing and sticking around for several days with a large high pressure system off the Carolina coast, keeping anything from moving its way. We’ll have to wait and see if this continues on the runs or if something else pops up out of the blue.