Remember area forecast discussions are very technical and can be hard to understand for those who aren’t weather geeks.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR FURTHER SOUTH TREND IN THE
NAM/SREF/RUC/HRRR MODELS ALL TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z EC/GEM. THESE LATEST RUNS BRING THE SURFACE LOW FROM SIOUX CITY TO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA…WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE. SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM…WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. ALSO VERY WEAK STABILITY…AND POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOW/EVEN POSSIBLE THUNDERSNOW AS WELL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

ALSO TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE…THUS EXPECT SOME HIGHER SNOW RATES AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THIS SYSTEM…WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THEREFORE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN THE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RANGE…AND SNOW RATIOS IN THE TEENS TO 1 HAVE UPPED SNOW TOTALS TO THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN FACT SOME OF THE MODELS TRYING TO OUTPUT 12 TO 15 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BANDED SNOW AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS ONCE SNOW BEGINS TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS PICKING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON…MAY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AS WELL.