There is a slight risk of severe weather for Saturday and Saturday night across the western 2/3rds of the state with the best chances in the 30% (red area) across the northwestern counties of the state. The main threats will be from large hail and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall is also a possibility as well.

RICHER MOISTURE /65-70F DEWPOINTS/ WILL RETURN NWD LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS EAST OF DEVELOPING NRN HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH. GREATEST DESTABILIZATION /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ IS LIKELY FROM NERN KS/ERN NEB AND SD INTO WRN IA AND SW NM WHERE EML PLUME WILL ADVECT NWD ABOVE RESERVOIR OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WHERE GREATER SURFACE HEATING IS LIKELY. FARTHER NORTH…STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS OF ND INTO NWRN MN WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ATTENDING THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES…STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SOUTH OF ONGOING MCS WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM WRN AND SWRN MN INTO ERN SD AND NEB. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WITH 35-40 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE AS THEY DEVELOP EWD AND SEWD WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS INTO THE EVENING.