The Storm Prediction Center has issued a TORNADO watch effective until 11pm this evening for the following counties, Adair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Cass, Clarke, Davis, Decatur, Guthrie, Lucas, Madison, Monroe, Ringgold, Taylor, Union, Wapello, Wayne, Montgomery and Page. Thunderstorms will develop along a warm front that is over northern Missouri. Along with the threat of isolated tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be main threats. Heavy rain is likely as well which will lead to flash flooding especially in areas that received heavy rain last night. Below is the SPC Discussion.

DISCUSSION…CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS WEAKENING E OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MO RIVER…AND MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AOA 3000 J/KG. THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND AN INCREASE IN ASCENT FROM THE W AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL TROUGH PROGRESS EWD FROM KS TO MO. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES THIS EVENING…ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIALLY MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS N/NW MO. LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT…CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.