All of Iowa, Flooding, Severe Weather

Iowa Forecast Discussion 6/14/2011

Severe Weather Outlook Today and Tonight

NO VIDEO TODAY DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER
Severe Weather is outlooked again today with a slight risk of severe weather for the southern third of the state. The main risks will be from large hail (as is the case this morning) and damaging winds. An enhanced chance is across northern Missouri where an isolated tornado is possible. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday night before a small window of drier weather moves in for Thursday.

However, rainy weather moves back in for the upcoming weekend, with chances Friday through Sunday morning before clearing out once more. Severe Weather with this system is possible but no area is outlooked at this time. A low pressure system is expected to be nearby as we head into early next week with some chances of rain at that time as well. Looking further out, the heat ridge that was seen on the last several runs has disappeared on the 00z GFS model run, with a western ridge (although not as large as previous runs) and an eastern trough. Given the wide ranging swings, we’ll continue to monitor.

Flash Flooding remains a threat today with a Flash Flood Watch recently extended through Wednesday across south central Iowa. Several inches of rain has fallen this morning with the activity, with more on the way. Several rivers and creeks have had river flood warnings reissued once again. On the Missouri River, the levee breached again yesterday morning SW of Hamburg, leading to a flash flood warning there. Several roads remain closed all along the western border. The river is still at least a week from cresting in the area, with additional rises possible thereafter due to precipitation patterns.