The Storm Prediction Center has elevated risks of severe weather over the area today and tomorrow. A low pressure system is expected to move into the Dakotas with an extending cold front through the central Plains. This will set the stage for thunderstorm development later in the afternoon. The environment farther north over Minnesota will not be as great as farther south as ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity will be occurring there early this morning, unlike western Iowa where things are more clear. Discrete thunderstorm activity should develop across eastern Nebraska by mid-afternoon with all modes of severe weather possible in an moderately unstable environment. This will push east into western Iowa before eventually evolving into a mesoscale convective system.

Confidence in the forecast for Tuesday is a bit more uncertain. There is a high chance that precipitation and a cloud shield from Monday’s MCS will have a tampering affect on potential additional development on Tuesday. If these things can clear, moderate instability with modest shear will develop, creating a fairly supportive environment for severe thunderstorms, with the exception being lack of lift. Thunderstorms may re-develop by evening posing a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.

Stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information!