The Southwest Easy Bake Oven or the Northeast Summer Refresher

SPLIT STATE: Some cooler air will move into the northeastern counties of the state today while the rest of the state continues to bake. Sunshine will be in full force again today with readings ranging from the upper 70s in the northeastern counties to the middle and upper 90s in the southwest. A century mark or two is possible. Dew points will be in the 60s to near 70 for the most part, so heat indices may get as high as 105 in our southwestern counties where at heat advisory is in effect. The rest of the state should see heat indices into the 90s outside the northeastern quarter where the cooler air will be.

SOMEWHAT DRY: It will remain dry through the weekend at least, however there are some slight chances of showers and storms especially at night. The GFS has chances tonight into Friday, and again Friday night into Saturday especially in our western counties. The chances however are 20-30% if that, and we’ve left out the chances on our forecast at least at this time. Temperatures will drop off a bit as we head into the weekend with lower 90s being the warmest readings by Saturday and Sunday.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP: The next best chance of seeing widespread precipitation will be Monday into Tuesday morning with a frontal system sagging into the state from the northwest. We’ll watch over the coming days to assess any severe weather chances and or heavy rain potential. Current thinking is suggesting the severe weather threat being minimal and the heavy rain chances being decent (due to PWAT values over 2”) Cooler air will filter into the state Tuesday with readings dropping to the refreshing 70s to near 80 across the state with lower humidity. Even so, the GFS does bring some precipitation into the state Wednesday night into Thursday of next week with a possible complex of thunderstorms riding the boundary between the cooler air and the hot air to the south and southwest. The best chance of this looks to be over the southwestern quarter of the state, but this could change in subsequent model runs.

ON THE ROAD TO JULY: As we look at the extended period which takes us through the first of July, the GFS shows some warmer air coming into the state but nothing that looks like a heat wave. There is a few chances of some precipitation as well during the period but nothing that can be pinpointed fully. No real confidence on anything during the period at this time.