The Storm Prediction Center has a slight (elevated) risk of severe weather for the eastern 2/3rd to 3/4ths of the state. The main threats would be from large hail and damaging straight line winds. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out but is not a main threat at least at this time. This could still change.

There is still a lot of factors that are up in the air with regards to this event. At the time of this writing (around 1:30am), there was a batch of showers and thunderstorms over eastern Nebraska with some stronger cells embedded in. These look to continue to move into western Iowa and northern Missouri and weaken however, SPC is concerned in their outlook that these storms could effect the track of the low pressure center that is forecast to move across the state today.

Any thunderstorm complex tends to change the mesoscale features of the region around it. In this case, it would cool and stabilize the region and push the warmer air that is forecast to move into the state further to the south, cutting the state off from any chances of severe weather (but not from any rainfall). There is some thought that this could occur if a mesoscale convective system or an MCS could form across Missouri and move through that area. This could cut the threats as well. There has been some model difference with regards to the low pressure center with the NAM having it over Iowa and the GFS over northern Missouri. At this time a mix of the two seems to be a good bet given the amount of rain currently during the morning hours in eastern Nebraska moving into western Iowa. HRRR 5z run agrees with this assumption with the 5z RAP slightly further north. If the low is further north into Iowa and conditions are right (as in no MCS across MO and no rain and storms across the state, the severe weather threats MAY increase, but this is a big if at this time.)

The main window for severe weather still looks to be from mid-afternoon through mid evening (roughly 2pm-10pm). Any storm could also bring some decent amounts of rain which may cause some localized flooding. Be sure to keep up to date with any watches and warning that may be issued later today.