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WEEKEND WETNESS: Partly to mostly sunny skies will be likely across the state today ahead of a storm system that will move in this weekend bringing with it quite a bit of rain and perhaps a bit of wintry precipitation in our northwestern counties. Highs today will not feel very wintry with 40s in the northwestern counties through the 50s elsewhere in the state. The storm system will move in mainly late Saturday into Sunday and early Monday with a chance of some rain. We could see some embedded thunderstorms as well. Our northwestern counties could see some rain mixing with some sleet before it switches to a rain snow mix Sunday into Sunday night but any accumulations look to be rather minor at this point. Rainfall amounts however are a different story with 1-2” of rain or more possible across the eastern half of the state. Highs on Saturday will vary from the 30s in the northwest to the 50s in the southeast. As the system swings through on Sunday, temperatures will be steady or slowing falling in the western counties while the eastern counties may be able to squeak out another warm day even though it will be raining. Outside the northwestern counties, most of the precipitation will likely stay in the form of rain with only a quick changeover to some wintry mix before ending late Sunday night or Monday morning. The northwestern counties may see some snow late before ending.
INTO NEXT WEEK: Another system looks to be on the heels of the first, but with little moisture to work with, it will not affect as much of the state nor will it be as significant. The GFS shows perhaps a chance of some light snow or wintry mix mainly for our northern counties Tuesday night into Wednesday. It doesn’t look to be a major issue at this time, but we’ll keep watching for any possible changes to that in due time. Highs Monday and Tuesday will still be above seasonal levels in the 30s and lower to middle 40s before readings return to more typical mid-December weather toward the middle and end of next week.
DECK THE GROUND WITH TONS OF SNOW: Heading into the extended period, we’re still watching a system around the 21st that could bring some snow to the state. This run however shows the chances to be much lower as most of the precipitation misses the state to the south and east. There’s still plenty of time to watch this system. Much colder air has been shown and is continued to be seen as we head toward Christmas with an Arctic High Pressure nosing in from the north and northwest. The GFS shows a few systems through the end of the period seemingly keeping the really cold air at bay in Canada until the end of the period when the floodgates open and a 1052mb high comes crashing into Montana. Even though most El Niño’s tend to be warmer, this does not mean a cold plunge of air from the Arctic can’t happen. It’s a matter of time and we’ll just have to wait and see if this could be the time or something different shows up in the long range.
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