An active weather week continues across the state with everything from light-to-moderate rain, strong winds, snow, and potentially a mix in the forecast. Yet another low pressure system that is currently moving out of the Plains will drive into the region Wednesday, bringing with it shower and thunderstorm chances once again. By the time this system exits, strong winds gusting to 50 MPH appear likely Thursday with cooler temperatures. Headlines will likely be issued for this sometime Wednesday. High temperatures Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 20s. But don’t fret, yet another system is on the way for Friday – bringing measureable snow along with it!
Friday morning will likely be dry, for the vast majority. Precipitation should begin entering the area in the early afternoon hours, from west to east. This will likely be a mix for the majority of the state as we sit in the 30 to 40°. However, in areas where the temperatures are closest to or below the freezing point, snow should occur. Where this transition happens quickest is wear the biggest snowfall totals will be. Temperatures should quickly drop as snow begins to fall across the area, and while the ground is warm enough to melt most of it, a 1-2″ gradient will be possible across much of the state. The location and timing of this is currently being worked out, as discussed below.
Things to Know:
1. Uncertainty
Things are still quite uncertain with this event. The American model, or GFS, paints a picture that is about six hours faster than it’s European counterpart, the ECMWF. It also has things farther north than the ECMWF, which reduces uncertainty also. Things are slowly coming more to a consensus, as the afternoon run of the GFS has things a tad more in line with the ECMWF, but it will be worth watching the night runs to see more consistency. Other concerns include where the rain/snow line will be, and potential mix in between. These are all things that will have to be taken in account with any upcoming snowfall forecasts.
2. Snowfall Totals
An important thing to note – as we see spread across the web – is that forecast model graphics, from the GFS, ECMWF, etc., do not take into account for soil or road temperatures. This is simply how much the numerical models expect to fall – whether it will stick is another story. There have been graphics of upwards of 6″ of snow in some areas – this is likely not true – as the vast majority of this will fall, and not accumulate. There will still be a 1-2″ glaze across the vast majority of the state, but pinpointing this directly is just not a viable option at this time. A lot of variables go into play here, such as snowfall rates, soil temperatures at the time of the event, and more. Details like this will be refined at a later time.
3. Impacts
As with the first snowfall event of every year, travel impacts can be expected. All drivers, ranging from the egocentric sophomores that just got their license, to the most experienced, seem to get caught off guard every year. Take some time to remind yourself of general winter protocol on roads – take. it. slow. A lot of traffic issues result from a driver speeding in hazardous conditions. You may be coming home from work on the Interstate, but just because you have a Friday night party to make it to does not mean you should drive as fast as you can in slushy, potentially blowing snow conditions.
The headlines don’t matter – the amounts don’t matter – the wind speed doesn’t matter – all it takes is you speeding and a slushy road, and all of the sudden, you’ll be hydroplaning into an accident. Do a favor to yourself – and others – and just be safe. Make sure your head lights are on and simply play it safe. It’s also a good time to get your winter survival kit refreshed. You’ll thank me later when you’re cold in your car and you remembered to pack blankets, food, and stuff to do.