Tropical Storm Danny, just named last Tuesday, lasting just a single advisory under the name Tropical Depression 4, is currently churning in the Atlantic this week and forecast to approach the Lesser Antiles and Puerto Rico as a high-end tropical storm or low-end Category 1 Hurricane.
The latest NHC advisory, as of 10:00 PM CDT/11:00 PM AST, has Tropical Storm Danny located at 12.1N and 42.7W. It is roughly 1270 miles east of the Lesser Antilles with a maximum sustained wind of 50 MPH. Strengthening is expected over the next 48 hours and it will likely become a hurricane by Friday. It’s minimum central pressure is holding steady at about 1000 mb, or 29.53 inches. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect, however that will likely change later this week.
As our friends at The Hurricane Network discuss:
Satellite presentation of Danny has been reorganized as Danny is engulfed by dry air that is surrounding the storm. Recent trends show that Danny might be reorganizing as it continues to move west. Initial intensity estimates remain the same as the previous advisory. Satellite estimates from THN and NHC supports this estimation.
Danny is being influenced by surrounding dry air which has been disorganizing Danny’s convection, this dry air is associated with the Saharan Air Layer. Danny is expected to encounter an area of strong wind shear through the next 48 hours which may limit further cyclone development. Trends in the models continue to support that Danny will approach the Windward Islands and U.S. Virgin Islands as a hurricane by late this weekend or early next week.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter will investigate Danny on Friday and Saturday to help better understand the conditions in and around Tropical Storm Danny. NOAA will also do a surveillance flight on Friday to input data into model guidance.
It’s been a relatively quiet Atlantic season thus far, and it is expected to stay that way. Interests in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Danny over the next week.