The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed much of east central and central Iowa under an enhanced risk of severe weather today with an elevated risk extending through basically the entire state.

Storms are expected to be ongoing this morning across the state as a result of an enhanced low level jet and frontal interaction. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of this activity as it skirts off to the east. Whether it lingers across the state too long, additional development occurs, or it strengthens and poses a large hail and damaging wind threat, there is a lot of uncertainty with the forecast for later this afternoon.

Shortwave energy, which will be situated over Minnesota, will likely converge with a frontal boundary and lead to a decent severe weather environment across the area. Warm temperatures and moisture-rich air will lead to ample instability across the area, and as scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to develop this afternoon, we will likely see a quick intensification of storms into a supercellular mode. All threats of severe weather will be possible, including an potentially significant tornado threat thanks to veering winds aloft and very moisture rich conditions in the lower parts of the atmosphere.

As the low level jet begins to strengthen in the evening, discrete cells will likely begin to band up and form a squall line or bow echo with an enhanced damaging wind threat, as we saw Monday morning across northern and eastern Iowa. The tornado threat will continue to be amplified with strong and potentially violent tornadoes possible along the leading edge of the line. The Storm Prediction Center has mentioned that they are considering a categorical upgrade to a Moderate risk in future outlooks if confidence can increase with this system.

It would be a very good idea to keep an eye on the weather and stay tuned to the Iowa Weather Network for the latest information!